The ruling party in all its divisive variants seems stubborn repeat before the abyss a dance that unfolds between the unusual, the absurd and the carefree, without its own authors being able to explain it with coherence and plausibility. In domestic and foreign policy and in the economy, everything goes according to the same pattern.
Due to its novel nature, it is worth starting with the surprising and enigmatic justification that in the last hours they started to give him from Olivos and Casa Rosada on the presidential tour of Europejust finished.
The official version says that Alberto Fernandezin his capacity as head of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) faced a more than ambitious secret management in front of the President of France, Emanuelle Macron, and the Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz. Nothing less is proposed than to change from the periphery the course of events that has the center of the world in suspense, after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
“In the weeks to come, we will see if it prospers, but the proposal has been listened to with great interest”, they affirm with a mysterious air and without blushing around the President.
For now, all unknowns about this supposed mission remain open, but among the most likely answers, no more than two appear. One would be that he is a unique strategy to save time (another one), in search of defending, by the absurd, a hitherto inexplicable tourexcept for the president’s need to distance himself from the many domestic disorders (in the broad sense) that afflict him.
The other option is that you are before a royal test, as audacious as it borders on megalomaniawhose relatives of Fernández have a semblance of viability.
The impossibility (or inability) to limit the endless escalation of internal conflicts within the ruling coalition cements doubts about this possibility. The same could be said of Fernández’s presentation of Argentina as an alternative source of Europe’s gas supply, despite the fact that the country is today and for a few more years an importer of this fuel, the supply of which for this winter is not even assured. But the cliché says that no one is a prophet in his country.
What is relevant, in any case, is that in Fernández’s inner circle they are enthusiastically promoting and disseminating it, as a relevant fact of the presidential administration. Opportunely, Carlos Menem also tried to be a peace manager in the Middle East.
“In conversations with Macron and Scholz, Alberto suggested that we need to think beyond the Russia-Ukraine, Russia-NATO antinomies, because the consequences of the war are already being felt everywhere and threaten to cause a world famine, in particular in Africa. The president explained that under this premise, more actors can be incorporated to seek a ceasefire,” detailed a prominent member of the presidential delegation. Will these actors understand Cristina Kirchner to soften the hard heart of Vladimir Putin? Follow the secret.
Anyway, This is not the first time that the Fernández administration has challenged itself on a planetary scale. already done during debt renegotiation with private creditors and in talks to come to terms with the International Monetary Fund, in which it was expected to set a global precedent. This explains the long and tedious delay before reaching an agreement. The demand to change the principles of world architecture while the leaks that have ruined his house for decades have not been repaired is not negotiated. But time is passing and Argentina’s problems are getting worse. Fernández and Guzmán have already verified it and suffered it in their own flesh. We don’t know if they recorded it.
Simultaneously, voices are being heard trying once again to edit, to soften, the barrage that mother and son Kirchners have hurled at the president in just one week.
The attacks preceded and followed the media raid in which Fernández sought to use microphones, cameras, digital sites and European newspapers to repeat renewed and firmer gestures of self-reliance and strength. However, after he relativizes them himself again, including his re-election project, accusing journalism of having promoted them. Nothing new.
The relativization of his own words exposes the fleetingness of the passage from “passive resilience to active resilience”, as some of his officials had described the European presidential awakening. Now they’re hoping that at least it won’t come back.
This is the greatest fear felt by those closest to Fernández. With his statements, the president “has taken an important step in the internal conflict, if he steps down now, it could be very hard for him and for all of us. There can be no turning back,” a senior official with immaculate Albertist DNA said mid-week. Not being a believer, he began to pray.
The two sources close to Fernández and the Kirchnerista universe now agree, after so many fires, that all the anger and attacks are focused on Martín Guzmán and that they exclude the President. As if what was said had not been literal enough and did not admit of too much exegesis. But, above all, as if one thing and the other could be divided.
The indivisibility of Fernández and Guzmán was reaffirmed as the president moved to back his minister, almost tying himself to the fate of the benevolent predictions of economic recovery that the economy minister and his beleaguered peers Matias Kulfas and Claudio Moroni they provide information on the evolution of economic activity, consumption and employment.
The reasons for this whole new relativization of the dispute that the two parties proclaim is that no one wants to appear as helpless or as an actor in a divorce.. But everything is too explicit. We can only speak of a continuity of the link for convenience. Although it is very expensive. There is too much to lose, everyone admits that.
None of this should be surprising in the constant dance before the abyss. The government and the internal cristicamporista opposition have agreed on something in recent days. Both have implemented and launched measures that indicate that the strategy to fight inflation is to cause more inflation..
The expansive pattern of spending and consumption is the recipe that both adhere to, but not necessarily with the same measures. This may sound absurd, but it has a certain logic. Even if the consequences can be catastrophic.
The insurmountable discussion for the increase in utility rates is the best example of this. Any solution at this stage has negative effects. Politics and economics. And no one wants to face them.
It is the local consecration of what the Korean philosopher Byung Chul Hang call “Palliative Policy”adopted in response to rejection or phobia of pain in postmodern societyworsened by the pandemic.
“The palliative policy is not capable of having visions or carrying out deep reforms which could be painful (…) It is preferable to resort to analgesics, which have temporary effects and only mask dysfunctions and systematic imbalances.says the Germany-based author.
Some Kirchnerist intellectuals tend to interpret Byung Chul Hang’s arguments in their favour, to propose an agonistic rather than a consensual policy, without noticing that the challenges promoted by his leadership have too much rhetoric and lack the viability and support to improve reality. . Prejudices still prevail.
The recent proposals to create a universal basic wage or to anticipate two updates to the minimum wage presented by the cristicamporismo, without having the means or foreseeing the consequences (not only with regard to compliance with the agreement with the IMF) are as extravagant as the dollarization that promotes the other end of the crack. Texts without context.
The government, in “moderate active resilience” mode, rejected the establishment of a universal wage, but with strictly political logic (and manifest structural weakness) it half-accepted the proposal of the eldest Kirchnerist son.
Thus, after having launched a kind of devalued IFE, he has advanced one of the two revisions to the basic income which should take place this year. Its central effect can be seen in social assistance, in certain salaries of sub-national public administrations and, marginally, in certain informal sectors of the economy. For this reason, the search to mitigate the majority impact on the public accounts reaffirms the unstable balance to which Fernández is permanently forced. Cristicamporismo always draws the bow and moves the tightrope, from left to right.
In the economic team, they try to put into perspective the effect that the disbursement of the approximately one billion pesos that the advance will cost will have. They attribute a positive side to inflation, since it will eventually liquefy this expenditure and similar ones, such as wage increases in the public sector. Despite what it means for inflation to put more money on the street. The same thing happens with the incentive to close parity for less time and more percentage that encourages cristikamporismo.
Cristina Kirchner’s Deputy Economy Minister had already warned against this. Emanuel Alvarez Agis He recalled this week in statements on the radio that, in a context of high inflation, the endless race of prices and wages usually ends in a confrontation with serious consequences for everyone (or almost). But very short-term rent maximization is the logic that permeates almost all disputes. A very dangerous rationality.
The party in power continues to dance before the abyss to the rhythm of the unusual, the absurd, the improvisation and the recklessness.