All war is based on deception. This is why, at first, analysts were very cautious about the surprising and disorderly withdrawal of troops from the Kremlin besieged by a Ukrainian lightning counter-offensive. The doubt as to whether this is a maneuver by Moscow or an obvious military defeat. And in this case if you have any chance of recovery.
There have been multiple indications that something is indeed happening on the front lines, which would confirm this negative development for Russia in a conflict that seemed to stagnate for weeks and with increasing quotas of demoralization among the invading troops.
In this sense, this result would be even more serious if it were considered a direct and inevitable consequence of the failure of the first hours of a war calculated by Russia to prolong A few days.
The original plan was the capture of Kyiv and the capture of President Volodimir Zelensky by paratroopers from a tactical group which were neutralized, some of them before landingit is now known, thanks to previous intelligence collected and communicated to the Ukrainian command by the United States and the United Kingdom.
Since then, the military confrontation has turned into a series of attempts to regain the initiative from Russia, which was not only correcting his opening speech on the motivation of this war against the neighboring country. Moreover, he changed the military objective which ended up concentrating on the Donbass valley, in the pro-Russian east of the country. The region that has now become Ukraine’s victory zone.
To confirm the depth of what is happening and remove doubts, it may be appropriate to observe another, equally dramatic scenario. In the past few hours, the forces of Azerbaijan, Turkey’s satellite country, have launched a online attack on Armenia. There are many victims.
This chapter of the war takes place after last year’s war for dominance of the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, which ended with half of that space in Azeri hands and with a containment force dispatched by Moscow to prevent the conflict from escalating. This whole region of the South Caucasus is literally the backyard of Russia.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, an essential partner of Vladimir Putin, has had ambitions for this region, as well as for the Aegean Sea and its islands of Greek sovereignty, among other spaces that he considers his own, dreaming of revive the domains of the Ottoman Empire who died during the First World War.
A regressive utopia similar to that surrounding Putin’s imperial ambition that defines everything Slavic and beyond as Russia’s own rightthe fundamental reason for the war he established against Ukraine.
Erdogan, whose country is a member of NATO, nevertheless maintained a close relationship with the Russian autocrat. Along the way, he had several one-on-one meetings with Putin, two of which were of particular importance, the first in Tehran on July 19 and in the Russian resort of Sochi on August 6.
The meeting in Iran brought together the troika winning the war in Syria in which Russian action since 2015 was essential to shore up the regime of Bashar al-Assad, a tenacious ally of Iran.
At this meeting, it emerged that the Turkish links they did not speak fluently neither with Russia nor with the Persian host, outraged by Ankara’s military moves in the South Caucasus where its geopolitical and trade situation has become complicated as its routes to and from Armenia are blocked. Moreover, Iran repudiates with great paranoia the ties between Azerbaijan and Israel.
At the Sochi meeting, there was a better climate, which can be explained by the agreements that allowed the departure to the port and to the world of Ukrainian food grains, a process that has already found strong momentum.
However, cereals were not Erdogan’s main concern. Turkey’s intention, since the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, has been to take advantage of the contradictions that the conflict brings to Russia bill them for their benefit. And now a solid opportunity appears.
The Alliev dynasty regime in Azerbaijan only works if there is a mandate from Ankara. So, if this country is now advancing against Armenia, it is because there is two hypotheses of Turkey’s vision that loom on the horizon.
The first, that Russia would no longer have the ability to control this region due to the overwhelming crisis that would engulf its warlike adventure in Ukraine. In Armenia there are two Russian bases with 3,000 troops, but there has been no verifiable movement around this new conflict yet.
The second, that indeed Russia would move towards a defeat in Ukraine which would weaken the Kremlin and Putin in an unpredictable way, so we must move forward now to state a factual fact before this scenario begins to order itself in another way.
A fact associated with this vision is that Azerbaijan, which is a powerful oil and gas country, has become a lifeline for europe against the energy trap with which Russia has sought to stifle the bloc.
Azerbaijan’s gas exports to the continent have increased by more than 31% this year. This is 7,300 million cubic meters shipped in the first eight months of 2022, which has significantly helped the filling European reservoirs in view of the impending winter.
A relief movement that will surely contain otherwise vehement protests against military advances against Armenia, a country that regularly arouses affection and solidarity in Europe.