Inflationary dynamics have swept away any forecast. The starting bell of the high season of paritarias has been brought forward and there was already dozens of chords sealed salaries, although with a peculiarity: there is no longer a common numerical or temporal model that serves as a reference. The reference of annual increases of 45% that the government mentioned a few weeks ago has been forgotten and it is now seeking to anchor the 60% expectations as recently agreed Banking, Trade, Health, Food, Gastronomy and Uocra [cerró hoy en 62% en ocho cuotas]. But there is no single recipe: there are many other activities that have accepted short-term increases, as is the case of Truckers, which achieved a 31% increase half-yearly or the mechanics of Smata, which obtained 15.5% quarterly. The heterogeneity of transactions reflects economic uncertaintyexacerbated by the internal short-circuits which divide the Government.
The budget of Martin Guzman that didn’t happen last year, the congressional filter predicted 33% inflation for 2022. Now in government they are crossing their fingers that the price increase doesn’t hit 60%. The target range drawn with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is between 38 and 48%, a target that is already anticipated as impossible. The new references of the Minister of Economy will be known in the renewed budget proposal What Alberto Fernandez would send to Congress a version of the Executive Order of Necessity and Emergency (DNU).
In order to give signs of greater predictability and to avoid permanent negotiations, the Minister of Labour, Claude Moroni, has been promoting long-term deals in recent weeks, preferably one year. However, Hugo Moyano cut himself off and surprised with a half-yearly deal, which even modified his parity calendar, which historically traded from June to May. “The diversity of deals is a direct consequence of the heterogeneity of trading activities and styles, added to the effects of the recent escalation in inflation,” Moroni said. THE NATION on the lack of a common parity model.
The official decision to advance negotiations is not a guarantee of anchoring inflationary expectations, according to Louis Fields, coordinator of the Social Law Observatory of the Autonomous CTA. “The faster the price increase, the more revisions are numerous and frequent over time. This will be far from being used to control inflation, quite the contrary. And it will not help workers either: at most they will continue to run behind inflation, although faster and faster, ”assessed Campos, a lawyer expert in labor statistics.
For the CGT unions advancement of parity it is an urgent shortcut that would not help provide predictability. “It’s a temporary relief”, expressed the CGT in a hard labor day message in which he warned of the consequences of the economic crisis and social inequalities.
The salary guideline that the government imagined for 2022 was far from being met even before the start of the current year. In December 2021, the Federation of Workers of the Oilseeds, Cotton and Related Ginners Industrial Complex agreed with the three chambers of trade in the sector a direct increase of one 39 percent from January to August. That is to say that the first parity of the year closed at eight months and far from Guzmán’s forecasts. It was a first warning sign that went unnoticed.
Something curious is happening in the current negotiations. Joint ventures that were negotiated in February with the intention of being annual, such as that of the public sector in Buenos Aires, are being reopened, while there are still discussions underway for the 2021 period. “Some characteristics of the current cycle of joint ventures are, on the one hand, a shortening of deadlines, either because shorter agreements are negotiated or because review clauses are fixed more quickly in time. has a failure of the initial guideline, which in a few weeks has gone from 40/45% with a revision to agreements that are hovering around 60% per year,” Campos said.
Sergio Sasia, head of the Railway Union, has warned that he will not accept long-term parity in the ongoing discussion. “We aspire to negotiate by semester and with review. We want 35% for six months,” the trade unionist said today on Radio Zónica.
There were activities that reflected their boom times in wage settlements. The Loading and unloading unionwhat is it the guild that sculpts in Mercado Libreachieved a quarterly increase of 22.4% and projects an annual increase of 70%. Health whose boss is Héctor Daer, one of the leaders of the CGT, agreed with the laboratories on an annual increase of 45%, but with one reservation: the entire increase is paid in the first four months and it there is a revision clause for later. In July, the year-over-year salary increase of the agreement would reach 96%according to sources familiar with the matter in detail. Another remarkable parity, and not only because of the support that Cristina Kirchner gave it, is that of the banks. In addition to the annual increase of 60%, the pact provides for two revisions, one in October and another in December; a bonus of $170,000 for Banking Day, and the profit-sharing bonus of the financial system is preserved.