The price of the blue dollar, super volatile: what will happen in May?

The price of the blue dollar, super volatile: what will happen in May?

what’s up with him blue dollar these days it is causing confusion in the market as it was quiet last week. However, the blue dollar market started to overheat and triggered the alarms: rose $16 in six days, of which $7 rose in a single day (April 26). It sold for $212.50 in the city, and after that peak, again it started falling to $204, no less than $8.50 in two days low.

The volatility is a feature of this informal market, but up and down movements tend to be more spaced outWhat got you so excited and what to expect for the month that begins shortly?

Although the economist Anker Martin Vauthier, “It is very difficult to project the dynamics of parallel exchange rates in the short term because it is a low volume market, which can generate a lot of volatility with small amounts.”

The analyst argues that “in the $190 area, the financial money Yes blue they had bottomed out”, but he explains that it is also true that prices are generally strongly influenced by restrictions on the purchase of foreign currencies within the framework of the actions, which forces many players to continue dollars in the informal market.

Towards the end of the month, the demand for dollars is reduced due to the lack of liquidity.

Blue dollar: the reasons for the fall

These actors, mainly the larger ones, who are those who, in response to the situation, generate movement in the blues market. And, as Epyca Consultores economist Joel Lupieri describes, “nowadays there is a lack of liquidity in the market due to the approach of the end of the month and the small saver does not have the pesos go shopping dollars“, which could reduce demand a little.

But, on the other hand, he does not exclude that the escalation of recent days has encouraged people who had dollars in black to dump them into the system for the purpose of gaining economic advantage. “This could lead us to now see a larger supply scenario with a consequence drop in demand, which lowers the price,” says Lupieri.

Public relations exchange operators, Gustave Quintana, stresses, along the same lines, that “what seems to be happening these days is that the need to pesosand explains that the end of the month seems to put pressure on this aspect.

Along the same lines, the director of CyT Economic Advisors, Camilo Tiscorneconsider that these downloads and low so steep are linked to speculative behavior. He argues that, “although there was logic for it to drop to $195 at the time, which was helped by the IMF deal and rising ratesSince then, there has been a lot of bad data, like high inflation, creative accounting to improve the budget deficit, and political strife.”

This, according to his view, justified the rise of the last days, but he warns that there were no subsequent changes that justify this new fall, more than the mere speculation and the tendency to sell in times of rising prices to take advantage of the difference and make a profit.

Blue will hover between $200 and $210, according to some analysts.

Blue will hover between $200 and $210, according to some analysts.

Did the famous “helping hands” come out to calm the blue?

However, in the market these days, there is also talk of the famous “helping hands”which are usually mentioned whenever there are such sudden movements in the price of parallel. Who are these helping hands? This is how some traders who “in the shadows” might operate are designated to calm the market down a bit, because such sudden moves generate a lot of fear in the market.

This would make sense given that, as Tiscornia points out, strong changes are not being seen in these days of context that justify the new low of blue. Thus, it is difficult to anticipate what will happen to the informal market for dollar in the coming month.

The market anticipates a month of May with a blue strongly conditioned to the evolution of reserves.

The market anticipates a month of May with a blue strongly conditioned to the evolution of reserves.

Blue Dollar Outlook in May

But the economist anticipates that, “looking ahead to May, the most important factor for the dynamics of the blue dollar This will be what will happen with the reserves of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), which these days, beyond the high volume of liquidation of the soybean harvest that is taking place, have serious storage problems dollars, mainly because import volumes and demand for foreign exchange on this side remain high.

Thus, Tiscornia assures that “he sees that the month will be difficult and that it will be quite busy” in economic matters. To which Quintana adds the fact that, in May, the expiry dates for the corporate income tax will begin.

“It will surely generate a need for pesos to pay, and in June we have the due dates for personal taxes and Christmas bonus payments, so it’s likely that alternative dollars stay still, except for an imponderable that would occur, ”he anticipates.

Therefore, according to economist Jorge Neyro, “a priori, it would seem that it is contained in a range between $200 and $210″but warns that external conditions are very volatile and this is affecting prices, so he warns that the market will need to be watched closely to see how it performs in the new month.

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